The New Jersey effect: Lehigh Valley population growth to continue, planners say

The Valley's population explosion of the past three decades is projected to continue and grow even faster. Take a NEWS POLL.

Lehigh and Northampton counties each added more than 30,000 new residents in the past decade from migration alone, and that growth is expected to continue unabated over the next 30 years, according to projections released Monday.

In fact, the Lehigh Valley Planning Commission sees that transplant-fueled growth outpacing the prior 30-year population explosion that began in 1980. Through 2040, the Valley's population will grow by 35 percent to 873,954 people, according to commission projections.

“We refer to that locally as the New Jersey effect,” said Michael Kaiser, executive director of the commission, based in Hanover Township, Lehigh County.

Population projections are an important part of smart growth so the region can meet future transportation, sewer, water and park needs while preserving farmland and open space, Kaiser said.

The commission’s last projections were spot on, Kaiser said, adding he is confident in the latest figures. The tricky part is nailing where transplants will settle down, he said.

“We try to relate this to our overall comprehensive plan,” Kaiser said.

Rust to vibrancy

The Lehigh Valley has transformed itself from a rust belt area to a region that outsiders now view as vibrant and convenient to New York City and Philadelphia but with a lower cost of living and good schools, said Don Cunningham, Lehigh Valley Economic Development Corp. president and CEO.

“It is very attractive from a quality-of-life perspective,” said Cunningham, a former Bethlehem mayor and Lehigh County executive. “That’s clearly what helped us economically. Despite the recession, we’ve still done well relocating businesses.”

On those leaving New Jersey, state Sen. Michael Doherty, R-Warren/Hunterdon/Somerset, said it’s unfortunate his state is known for having the highest property taxes in the nation and expensive energy costs.

“New Jersey should be the low-cost alternative to New York City and Philadelphia,” Doherty said.

Instead, the state is driving out businesses and homeowners, he said. A recent example is Ocean Spray’s decision to move its bottling plant to Upper Macungie Township after about 70 years at its Bordentown, N.J., location.

The company cited lower operating costs, the opportunity for a new facility and access to infrastructure and highways as reasons for moving the bottling plant.

To stop the exodus, New Jersey must lower its regulatory burden and energy costs and distribute school aid more equitably to help lower local school taxes, Doherty said.

Employment key

There’s no reason to think that the Lehigh Valley’s cheaper cost of living and lower taxes will end, Cunningham said.

“It takes many years for an image and perception of the region to change. I would say that flip has switched,” he said. “People outside the Lehigh Valley really view it as a growing prosperous area.”

The challenge will be to keep creating jobs for new residents and caring for the burgeoning population of aging baby boomers, officials said. The region is still combating a major brain drain. Early 20-somethings who graduate from the Lehigh Valley’s many colleges and universities aren’t sticking around.

“It all starts with the right kind of employment,” Cunningham said. “People will stay here as long as attractive job opportunities are here.”

Walkable cities with lots of recreation options will stave off brain drain, he said.

According to the population study, later in their 20s, men are returning to Lehigh County for job opportunities. And as people turn 30 and start families, they’re relocating to Northampton County, a trend that starts at a younger age in Lehigh County.

“Our sweet spot is once people start raising families,” Cunningham said.


FERTILE LAND FOR GROWTH

Highlights of the Lehigh Valley Planning Commission’s “Population Projections for Lehigh and Northampton Counties: 2010-2040” include:

• Migration during the 2000s added about 30,300 people and 30,100 people in Lehigh and Northampton counties, respectively.
• Northampton County’s net migration is stronger than Lehigh County’s because it is closer to the main inflow of people from New York and New Jersey.
• Lehigh County’s population will increase more than Northampton County’s over the projection period due to a much higher fertility rate.
• All age groups show an increase in population through 2040. The largest increases on a percentage basis are for the 70-74 and 75-plus age groups, which will about double. The 65-69 age group has the next largest increase over this period at about 60 percent.

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