A wintry mix is expected in many places during the day with the changeover to snow happening between 4 and 7 o'clock. Hackettstown will be hit harder than Phillipsburg, according to a forecast.
OK, we're within the window where the weather services pretty much know what's going to happen today.
So, the big question: How much?
Winter storm Nemo should bring 6 inches of snow to the Lehigh Valley, the National Weather Service predicts. Five to 10 inches are predicted in Warren County, with it getting deeper the farther east you get, WeatherWorks in Hackettstown says, adding that the Lehigh Valley could get as much as 8 inches and as little as 5. Twelve to 18 inches are expected in the Poconos and Sussex County, the National Weather Service says. And 10 to 14 inches are predicted in New York City, with prolonged blizzard conditions.
We are in a winter storm warning until 6 a.m. Saturday. But you may have noticed when you looked out the window this morning that it wasn't doing much of anything.
Most of us could be soon seeing light snow or rain. It was above freezing long before the sun rose this morning in Easton and that will play a part in the snow accumulation, National Weather Service meteorologist Jim Hayes said this morning from Mount Holly, N.J.
While we were expecting a wintry mix here -- and WeatherWorks meteorologist Sean Rowland said it will run the gamut from snow, sleet, freezing rain and snow -- in the Poconos and very northern New Jersey there will be no changeover, thus the heavier snow, Hayes said.
In an 8:11 update this morning, the National Weather Service put the snow-rain line at Interstate 78, with it all becoming snow later in the day. Light snow was falling at mid-morning in Easton, but it wasn't accumulating. In its 12:30 discussion, the weather service noted the precipitation remained snow even just south of I-78, but was not sticking. Troopers at the Pennsylvania State Police barracks in Pocono Township, Pa., and New Jersey State Police barracks in Hope Township New Jersey, two of the more northern outposts in our reach, reported no new snow on the ground as of noon.
The storm over the Ohio Valley is falling apart, Hayes said, so the focus now is on a low pressure area that will move north off the Carolina coast. It will pick up power by the time it reaches the New Jersey coast -- it is expected to be a strong storm this evening when it's about 100 to 150 miles off the Atlantic City shoreline -- leading to beach erosion. "Part of what's been done (to restore beaches after Superstorm Sandy) will be undone," Hayes said, adding that that's not unusual in a winter coastal storm. There will be minor to moderate coastal flooding, Rowland said.
As the low moves north toward New England, where it could have a historic impact with 2 to 3 feet of snow and winds up to 70 mph, there is going to be a back-end effect that smacks New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania with the region's heaviest snow of the storm, Hayes and Rowland said.
The changeover from the mix to all snow -- or simply a change to accumulating snow -- should come between 4 and 7 p.m., the forecasters said. It's possible an earlier changeover could lead to a larger accumulation. The northern Lehigh Valley was targeted in the 9:30 NWS discussion as a place that could get more snow if bands line up that way, possibly allowing 2 inches of snow per hour. This will be updated later in the day, the weather service said.
Conditions will be "deteriorating as we go through the evening rush," Rowland said, with places closer to the coastal low being hit harder than those farther away, he added. It would be better to leave early today if you're commuting from east to west.
"This is a dangerous storm; and we ask motorists to be careful while driving. There is also the potential for downed trees and wires because of wind conditions," Col. Rick Fuentes, superintendent of the New Jersey State Police and state director of the New Jersey Office of Emergency Management, said this morning in an email from Gov. Chris Christie's office. The "evening commute will be treacherous throughout much of New Jersey."
The heaviest snow is likely to fall between 7 and 11 tonight, Hayes said, adding that the forecast 1 to 2 inches an hour could happen in that time frame.
Wind gusts could be as high as 35 mph, Hayes said, but Rowland says 10 to 25 is a likely scenario during the storm.
The next National Weather Service update was at 9:30 -- it was little changed, but suggested there could be changes later in the day -- and was followed another at 12:30, which was referenced above, and every three hours after that for the duration of the storm, Hayes said. Be mindful while you look at weather service warnings how wide a geographic range they include, such as Newton and Morristown in New Jersey and Monroe County being in the same warning area as Easton. It's why you'll see such a wide range of accumulation and why we asked forecasters this morning to be so regionally specific about accumulation.
You can watch the storm arrive on AccuWeather's radar.