Hackettstown-based WeatherWorks says several things will have to change for Wednesday's storm to really smack the Lehigh Valley and northwest New Jersey.
WeatherWorks meteorologist Rob Reale knows one thing about this week's weather:
"Someone is going to get a storm," the Hackettstown-based weather forecaster said early today.
But even if the Lehigh Valley and northwest New Jersey get snow showers Wednesday into Wednesday night, the significant storm that some early projections indicated put the region at risk now looks like it's going south for spring break, Reale said.
"It does seem that's the way it's going to play out," he said, adding the the region will still see some precipitation.
And AccuWeather, which screamed the loudest last week with threats of an "atmospheric bomb," and the National Weather Service agree the threat has lessened.
"There is a blocking high to the north suppressing the storm," Reale said, adding that forecasters are "pretty certain" Wednesday and Thursday will be two of many recent stormy days where little or no snow survives on the ground.
Several things would have to change for the storm to re-form off the East Coast as a traditional nor'easter and come up to visit the region.
Of course, we're only talking a change of 100 or 200 miles, Reale said.
"It would be cold enough," Reale said, with a forecast high of 40, about 7 degrees below normal, and getting far colder into Wednesday night, when the heavier snow would fall.
And a year ago, WeatherWorks was worried about if the highs would hit 70 or 80 degrees in the second half of the month, as March came in 10 degrees above normal, Reale said.
That's not in the offing this year, he said, but spring will gradually arrive this month.
"It's been a long winter," he said. "The frequency of snow was just unreal."
But while we didn't go many days without snow or sleet or freezing rain, it didn't pile up much, with below-average accumulation throughout the season, he said.
And now we're getting to the point where heavy snow becomes unlikely.
WeatherWorks for months has been projecting a March snowstorm -- "We more predict patterns that far out," Reale said -- but it looks like the most likely threat is heading south.
"It's gradually getting warmer. ... We're still looking at some storm systems to deal with," Reale said, adding that we're not out of the stormy pattern that has left so many days cloudy and weepy. "But it's tough to get all snow this time of year."
It's likely that will happen somewhere this week, he said, it's just not likely to be here.