But Lehigh, Northampton, Warren and Hunterdon counties aren't part of the trend.
A record number of U.S. counties — more than one in three — are now dying off, hit by an aging population and weakened local economies that are spurring young adults to seek jobs and build families elsewhere.
New 2012 census estimates released Thursday highlight the population shifts as the U.S. encounters its most sluggish growth levels since the Great Depression.
With a slowly improving U.S. economy, young adults are now back on the move, departing traditional big cities to test the job market mostly in the South and West, which had sustained the biggest hits in the housing bust.
Also seeing big declines now are rural and exurban areas, along with industrial sections of the Rust Belt.
Census data show that 1,135 of the nation’s 3,143 counties are now experiencing “natural decrease,” where deaths exceed births. That’s up from roughly 880 U.S. counties, or 1 in 4, in 2009. Already apparent in Japan and many European nations, natural decrease is now increasingly evident in large swaths of the U.S.
But the trend hasn’t hit this region. Lehigh, Northampton, Warren and Hunterdon counties all saw a “natural increase.” Lehigh had 2,445 more births than deaths between April 1, 2010, and July 1, 2012, the reporting period highlighted in the latest data. The natural increases in the other counties were 484 in Northampton, 278 in Warren and 193 in Hunterdon.
Despite increasing deaths, the U.S. population as a whole continues to grow, boosted by immigration from abroad and relatively higher births among the mostly younger migrants from Mexico, Latin America and Asia.
“These counties are in a pretty steep downward spiral,” said Kenneth Johnson, a senior demographer and sociology professor at the University of New Hampshire, who researched the findings. “The young people leave and the older adults stay in place and age. Unless something dramatic changes — for instance, new development such as a meatpacking plant to attract young Hispanics — these areas are likely to have more and more natural decrease.”
The areas of natural decrease stretch from industrial areas near Pittsburgh and Cleveland to the vineyards outside San Francisco to the rural areas of east Texas and the Great Plains. A common theme is a waning local economy, such as farming, mining or industrial areas.
They also include some retirement communities in Florida, although many are cushioned by a steady flow of new retirees each year.
