It's been dry since the beginning of October, but there have been 3 inches of rain as fronts have passed through, the WeatherWorks forecaster and the National Weather Service say.
There was a brush fire burning before dawn today along Interstate 78 East in Berks County's Greenwich Township, according to emergency radio reports, and the National Weather Service is warning about the potential for more.
In a special weather statement, the weather service points to an "enhanced risk of wildfire spread today" throughout the region.
On Oct. 1, there was a precipitation excess of 2.53 inches for the year at Lehigh Valley International Airport, the weather service said. As of Monday night, that had become a deficit of 0.31 inches. In the month and a half, it has rained 3.01 inches, according to weather service measurements.
We're in a pattern where "we don't have many moisture-deep systems passing through," Nick Troiano, a meteorologist at WeatherWorks in Hackettstown, said this morning.
It doesn't mean we're in a drought or anything like it, he said.
We get precipitation as frontal boundaries pass through, but that is followed by four of five days of high pressure being dominant -- leading to a beautiful, blue-skied autumn and a long, lovely foliage season.
But the trails, for example, at Jacobsburg Environmental Education Center in Bushkill Township were tinder dry over the weekend as the leaves have finally fallen.
Being that people aren't watering their lawns or filling swimming pools, "water usage is at a minimum and will ease those (fire) concerns a little bit," Troiano said.
The depth of the Bushkill Creek at Tatamy, for example, is basically unchanged in the past three weeks, according to the USGS.
Rain is expected by the weekend as another front passes through, Troiano said.
But today, winds are expected to be 10 to 20 miles per hour with gusts up to 30 and that could make the fire risk greater, he said. And the relative humidity will be low, making it even drier, he said.
After today, high pressure takes over and the winds go away ahead of weekend rain, he said.
Often, August and October are among the wettest months, but this year, June was the soggiest month of the summer and the region built up a significant surplus, Troiano said. He called the rainy June and dry October a normal "variant."
But a dry November is no indication a less-than-snowy winter is in our future, Troiano said.
One thing, however, is soon to be seasonal -- after the front passes through over the weekend, the cold weather returns, Troiano said.
Sunday's high? Thirty-seven degrees, the National Weather Service forecasts.