It depends on the track of the storm, when it comes together and if it remains all snow, a WeatherWorks meteorologist says.
When looking at a potential snowstorm from Wednesday night into Friday morning, forecasters at WeatherWorks in Hackettstown are weighing three major items.
The storm's track. How quickly the storm comes together. And where the mixing line lies that divides snow from other precipitation.
When it comes to this week's storm, none of these are certain, so it can't be certain what will happen once snow starts to fall, meteorologist Sam DeAlba said this morning.
So, really, how much is it going to snow?
"I'm not going to be the one to say that," he said. "If we had track here, where the mixing line is set up, I'd feel more confident."
The storm at the moment is in the Gulf of Mexico. It's expected to work its way up the East Coast and light snow could fall as early as late New Year's night, he said.
"It tries to get its act together on Thursday," DeAlba said.
Some models show a "very significant snowfall," with the most accumulation piling up Thursday night as the storm prepares to exit, he said.
That's assuming the storm holds near the coast and is at its greatest strength when it is nearest to New Jersey. But it could track further to the east and that would shut down much of the dangerous snow, he said.
And will it all be snow? Or sleet. Or rain?
"The specifics are still up in the air," he said. "There's a decent chance there will be a plowable event."
Plowable event? At least two or three inches of snow, DeAlba said.
So, again, how much will it snow?
"Even to give a top-end number to this, I can't give it yet," he said.
While it is a coastal storm, and coastal storms usually bring the most snow, huge accumulations usually come from slow-moving events because they run into "a blocking pattern," he said. This week's storm -- and another one seen for Jan. 6 into 7 along a similar path -- will have a short visit when at its most fierce.
"Both will have intensity but will take a quicker track," he said.
Forget about the snow for a moment and let's talk cold.
After whatever is to fall falls, the high on Friday will be in the teens, DeAlba said, as some of the coldest air in two years moves through the region. The overnight low into Saturday should be in single digits, he said.
Saturday warms into the mid or high 20s and Sunday we're back in the mid to high 30s, he said.
And that will be where a melt could begin. Because those who figure out de-icing efficiency see the 20-degree make as a key figure, DeAlba said. Below 20 and the materials don't work so well, he said.
So, prepare now to be careful on the road later in the week. And then again in the middle of the following week. Not to mention keeping warm Friday night and early Saturday morning.
After 13 inches of snow so far this month, welcome to winter.