Snow forecast coming into focus - three to eight inches Thursday into Friday, meteorologist says

'The Lehigh Valley is an interesting spot,' because it could get three to six inches or four to eight inches of snow, the Hackettstown-based meteorologist says.

Three to six inches of snow.

Four to eight inches of snow.

Gusty winds and plummeting temperatures.

A winter weather forecast that was uncertain on Monday is "starting to come together," a WeatherWorks meteorologist said this morning from Hackettstown.

New Year's Day should be dry, Sam DeAlba said. Some northern stretches of Pennsylvania and New Jersey could see flurries late Wednesday night, he said. The Lehigh Valley and northwest New Jersey could start to see light snow on Thursday morning -- but it will likely remain to the north of the region, he added.

It begins to get interesting on Thursday afternoon, he said. But Thursday evening and night will be "the main event" -- the snow gets heavy as the storm sets up off the Atlantic coast, the temperature drops to about 10 degrees and winds pick up to 30 to 35 mph, he said.

The snow could fall into Friday morning, and the high temperature by that point should be 10 to 15 degrees, with wind gusts as high as 40 mph, he said.

The snow should be fluffy because it will be so cold, making shoveling a bit easier, but as DeAlba said, it's going to be 10 degrees and windy, so shoveling won't be much fun. The chill at 10 degrees with a 40 mph wind is -15 degrees, the National Weather Service says.

So, what is it, three to six or four to eight in the region?

"The Lehigh Valley is an interesting spot," he said. "It should be good for at least three to six" but four to eight is possible.

Warren and Hunterdon counties have a shot at four to eight inches, but Sussex County is more likely to be on the high end, he said.

Confidence is very high at this point that there will be a plowable event, he said, meaning at least two to three inches of snow. There are still some outlier models that show the storm going farther east and bringing less snow to the area, he said, but most models are now converging.

"It's still not a 100 percent lock," he said. "But we are feeling much better about it today."

The possibility of four to eight inches is about 60 percent at this point, but the higher end is closer to 20 percent, he said.

But, with the cold temperatures, whatever falls should be all snow, he said. It should be a drier snow that can accumulate faster than a wet snow, he said.

And when the snow stops? The overnight low Friday into Saturday should be about zero, and could drop into negative territory, he said.

"It's certainly going to be cold" throughout the storm and its aftermath, he said.