The question is how far north the storm reaches. Updated forecasts expected this afternoon.
There's still no nightmare scenario, but a strong snowstorm is expected to turn further north than predicted a day ago, forecasters say this morning.
The heaviest snow is expected to stay to the south of the Lehigh Valley, but a blocking high-pressure area that was expected to keep most of it below the region has weakened, a meteorologist at WeatherWorks in Hackettstown explained this morning.
The local company's forecast is being echoed by AccuWeather and the National Weather Service as the storm, which is ripping through Minnesota at the moment, gears up for an East Coast visit.
But as National Weather Service meteorologist Larry Nierenberg explains, the changes so far in recent days have been fairly slight. At this point, he sees 2 inches of snow Wednesday night in the Lehigh Valley, and because it could hit 40 degrees earlier in the day, it might just stick to grass and untreated surfaces.
The question remains, how far north?
"We're not sure where the northern extent is just yet," Nierenberg said from the weather station in Mount Holly, N.J., figuring it could be anywhere from the Lehigh Valley to southern New York state.
"We're talking slim margins, as far as the Lehigh Valley is concerned," WeatherWorks meteorologist Rob Reale said about the potential risk for the region if the storm track moves. "It will snow heaviest to the south (of the region) during the day and east at night. ... There's a little bit better potential" today than there was Monday for heavier snow in the Lehigh Valley and northwest New Jersey.
If the precipitation were all snow in the Lehigh Valley, 6 inches is possible. But Reale and Nierenberg expect Wednesday during the day to be either rainy or snowy without accumulation. Reale figures 1 to 3 inches over the course of what will become a spinning off-shore storm, which could still be bringing snow showers into Friday. The weekend should eliminate any memory of the snow, he said, but it could be grey and cool until then.
The forecast looks fairly certain through noon on Wednesday, Reale said.
"Come afternoon and overnight, that's the question," he said.
"The big question is if the storm moves further north," Nierenberg added.
WeatherWorks expects an updated forecast early this afternoon, while the National Weather Service is planning one for 4 o'clock.
Nierenberg said the new forecast could bring change or be pretty much the same -- "it hasn't changed all that much" in recent days, he said. But one thing seems certain.
"This isn't the blizzard; this isn't anything like that" in the Lehigh Valley, Nierenberg said.