Current forecasts point to four to nine inches across the region, but the high side is more likely, a meteorologist from Hackettstown says.
There will be two distinct parts of the snowstorm on Saturday -- a couple of inches of fresh powder during the day that is expected to transition into several inches of heavy, wet snow in the evening as a low pressure area picks up strength off the coast, a WeatherWorks meteorologist said this morning from Hackettstown.
How much will it snow? WeatherWorks this morning was projecting four to eight inches, although meteorologist Rob Reale says six to eight inches is probably the direction the forecast will move.
The National Weather Service in its regional forecast says five to nine inches, but when you drill down to the specific cities, the southern part of the Lehigh Valley and Warren County are forecast to see two to four inches during the day, while in the northern reaches, it's three to five inches, the weather service says.
The nighttime forecasts show significantly less at the moment, but meteorologist Mitchell Gaines said the nighttime totals have yet to be added. The intensity is expected to pick up during the day and the heaviest snow is expected "early in the evening," he said. If the daytime is two to four inches, nighttime would be three to five more inches, he said.
A winter storm watch begins 6 a.m. Saturday and runs through 6 a.m. Sunday, the weather service says. The watch provides for a "potential for significant snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel."
Because the region will be on the west side of the low, the wind will be from the northwest and it will be colder here, meaning the snow accumulation will be higher than other locations, Reale said.
There will be "a very sharp cutoff" in what Reale terms a "typical I-95 storm." South and east of the interstate, it's likely to be rain, while north and west of the highway, it's more likely to be snow.
While forecasts earlier in the week showed a warming trend on Saturday, much of the day will be in the low or mid-20s, Reale said. As the upper air warms Saturday night, the snow will get wetter and heavier and then precipitation could turn to rain, he said. But it likely about midnight will go from snow to sleet or freezing rain, as the surface temperature is not expected to exceed 32 degrees.
This will be the third weather event in a week, and it has been 10 to 15 degrees colder than normal, a somewhat rare combination for early December, Reale said.
"It's pretty unusual for this amount of cold, with this amount of activity," he said. But after a clipper Tuesday, we should actually enter a warmer, calmer period, he added.
"That will be welcome for a lot of people," he said.